Recrutement de 01 Statistical Modelling Consultant, Health and HIV Unit, D&A Section, DAPM NYHQ

Recrutement de 01 Statistical Modelling Consultant, Health and HIV Unit, D&A Section, DAPM NYHQ
Consultancy - Statistical Modelling Consultant, Health and HIV Unit, D&A Section, DAPM NYHQ (remote- based)

Job no: 572495
Contract type: Consultant
Duty Station: New York
Level: Consultancy
Location: United States
Categories: Health, HIV/AIDS
Consultancy Title: Statistical Modelling Consultant

Section/Division/Duty Station: Health and HIV Unit, DAPM, UNICEF NYHQ (remote-based)

Duration: 1 July 2024 – 31 Oct 2024

About UNICEF

If you are a committed, creative professional and are passionate about making a lasting difference for children, the world's leading children's rights organization would like to hear from you. For 70 years, UNICEF has been working on the ground in 190 countries and territories to promote children's survival, protection, and development. The world's largest provider of vaccines for developing countries, UNICEF supports child health and nutrition, good water and sanitation, quality basic education for all boys and girls, and the protection of children from violence, exploitation, and AIDS. UNICEF is funded entirely by the voluntary contributions of individuals, businesses, foundations, and governments. UNICEF has over 12,000 staff in more than 145 countries.

BACKGROUND

Purpose of Activity/Assignment:

The purpose of this assignment is to develop statistical models for several maternal, newborn, child, and adolescent health (MNCAH) indicators for UNICEF’s reporting and monitoring. These models will allow for data integration from multiple sources, provide annualized estimates for indicators at the country level, and project indicators within short time horizons.

Scope of Work:

The scope of work for this consultancy is to advance the estimation processes used by the UNICEF/HQ DAPM Health and HIV team by advancing the methodology, toolset, estimates, and validation approaches. The scope includes:

Review of existing methods for estimation and a proposal for an estimation process to be used for 22 Strategic Plan and Non-Strategic Plan indicators under the custodianship by the Health and HIV team.
The 8 SP Indicators are as follows:

Percentage of pregnant women receiving at least four antenatal visits.​ 
Percentage of live births attended by skilled health personnel (home and facilities) (SDG 3.1.2).
Percentage of mothers receiving postnatal care.
Percentage of newborns receiving postnatal care.
Percentage of children with diarrhea receiving oral rehydration salts (ORS). 
Percentage of children with diarrhea receiving ORS and zinc.
Percentage of children with symptoms of acute respiratory infections taken to an appropriate health provider.
Percentage of children in malaria-endemic countries sleeping under an insecticide-treated net.
The 14 non-SP Indicators are as follows:

Percentage of pregnant women receiving at least one antenatal visit.
Percentage of women (aged 20-24 years) who gave birth before age 18.
Percentage of deliveries by caesarean section.
Percentage of deliveries in a health facility.
Percentage of children (under age 5) with diarrhea for whom advice or treatment was sought from a health facility or provider.
Percentage of children (under age 5) with diarrhea who received ORT (oral rehydration salts or recommended homemade fluids or increased fluids) and continued feeding.
Percentage of children (under age 5) with diarrhea who received zinc.
Percentage of women (aged 15-49 years) who received three or more doses of intermittent preventive treatment during antenatal care visits during their last pregnancy.
Percentage of households with at least one ITN for every two persons and/or IRS in the past 12 months.
Percentage of households with at least one insecticide-treated mosquito net (ITN).
Pregnant women sleeping under ITN - percentage of pregnant women (aged 15-49 years) who slept under an insecticide-treated net the previous night.
Percentage of children (under age 5) with fever for whom advice or treatment was sought from a health facility or provider.
Percentage of febrile children (under age 5) who had a finger or heel stick for malaria testing.
Percentage of febrile children (under age 5) receiving ACT (first line antimalarial drug), among those receiving any antimalarial drugs.
Evaluate competing models for the estimation approach, including metrics that quantitatively assess the model parameters, such as validating the addition and impact of covariates.
Adding additional sources of data into the model inputs, including evaluating the data quality, considering how different data sources change the estimation approach, and updating the model to incorporate multiple data points within a given year.
Evaluating alternative strategies for forecasting estimates to 2030, considering the different approaches needed for high data and low data scenarios.
Production and regional- and country-level estimates for all Health and HIV indicators, with an assessment of validation metrics assessing model accuracy and goodness of fit.
Terms of Reference / Deliverables

In close collaboration and working with the Statistics and Monitoring Advisor, the incumbent is responsible for the following deliverables:

Deliverable 1: Technical Note

Deliverables/Outputs:

Prepare a technical note (no more than 5 pages) of model-based estimation approaches and methodology, and their pros, cons, and inferential limitations, specifically including existing global estimation processes that use a modelling approach (UNIGME, JME, etc)
Delivery deadline: 31 July 2024

Deliverable 2: Evaluate candidate covariates to include in the models.

Deliverables/Outputs:

A table comparing potential covariates to include in the model to estimate 22 MNCAH indicators (see above) including indicators of country income, poverty, and health status with correlation metrics, assumed causal mechanism, analysing the contribution of covariates to model performance, also provide recommendations on inclusion of additional explanatory variables as and where needed.
Delivery deadline: 31 July 2024

Deliverable 3: Time-series estimation

Deliverables/Outputs:

Produce a datafile and graph containing national- and subnational-level time series estimates.
Delivery deadline: 31 August 2024

Deliverable 4: Model validation and selection

Deliverables/Outputs:

A comparison table summarizing model performance of competing candidate models for all 22 MNCAH outcome/impact indicators, assessing and validating every model based on the model parameters estimates produced providing recommendation on appropriate candidate model for each MNCAH indicator (with specific consideration on whether alternative models are needed for specific situations and data availability)
Delivery deadline: 31 Sept 2024

Deliverable 5: Reproducible scripts and documentation of methodology and rationale

Deliverables/Outputs:

Report summarizing model building, validation process, exploration of covariates and rationale for the selected model.
Reproducible, readable R scripts
Delivery deadline: 30 Oct 2024

Qualifications

Education

Masters in biostatistics, statistics, public health, or related discipline
At least 2-3 years of experience in statistical modelling
Work experience

Demonstrated expertise with Bayesian statistical methods and modelling.
Competence using R software programming including an ability to code and work independently investigating and resolving program bugs.
Ability to work independently and efficiently whilst working remotely from other members of the team.
Accuracy and attention to detail.
Ability to produce high-quality outputs whilst working to short deadlines.
Knowledge and understanding of key issues and modelling challenges for maternal, neonatal, and child health data.
Proficiency in English sufficient to clearly convey complex technical topics to a lay audience.

Competencies

Excellent communication and interpersonal skills.
Proven ability to work collaboratively in a multidisciplinary and multicultural environment.
Proficient in English; knowledge of other UN languages is an asset.
Requirements:

Completed profile in UNICEF's e-Recruitment system.
Upload copy of academic credentials
Financial proposal that will include:
the costs per each deliverable and the total all-inclusive (lump-sum) fees for the whole assignment (in US$) to undertake the terms of reference.
travel costs and daily subsistence allowance, if internationally recruited or travel is required as per TOR.
Any other estimated costs: visa, health insurance, as applicable.
Indicate your availability.
Any emergent / unforeseen duty travel and related expenses will be covered by UNICEF.
At the time the contract is awarded, the selected candidate must have in place current health insurance coverage.
Payment of professional fees will be based on submission of agreed satisfactory deliverables. UNICEF reserves the right to withhold payment in case the deliverables submitted are not up to the required standard or in case of delays in submitting the deliverables on the part of the consultant.
Health Insurance:

The Consultant is fully responsible for arranging at their own expense, such as life, health, and other forms of insurance covering the term of the Contract as he or she considers appropriate. The Consultant is not eligible to participate in the life or health insurance schemes available to UNICEF and United Nations staff members.

For every Child, you demonstrate…

UNICEF's values of Care, Respect, Integrity, Trust, Accountability, and Sustainability (CRITAS).

To view our competency framework, please visit  here.

UNICEF is here to serve the world’s most disadvantaged children and our global workforce must reflect the diversity of those children. The UNICEF family is committed to include everyone, irrespective of their race/ethnicity, age, disability, gender identity, sexual orientation, religion, nationality, socio-economic background, or any other personal characteristic.

UNICEF offers reasonable accommodation for consultants/individual contractors with disabilities. This may include, for example, accessible software, travel assistance for missions or personal attendants. We encourage you to disclose your disability during your application in case you need reasonable accommodation during the selection process and afterwards in your assignment.

UNICEF has a zero-tolerance policy on conduct that is incompatible with the aims and objectives of the United Nations and UNICEF, including sexual exploitation and abuse, sexual harassment, abuse of authority and discrimination. UNICEF also adheres to strict child safeguarding principles. All selected candidates will be expected to adhere to these standards and principles and will therefore undergo rigorous reference and background checks. Background checks will include the verification of academic credential(s) and employment history. Selected candidates may be required to provide additional information to conduct a background check.

Remarks:

Only shortlisted candidates will be contacted and advance to the next stage of the selection process.

Individuals engaged under a consultancy or individual contract will not be considered “staff members” under the Staff Regulations and Rules of the United Nations and UNICEF’s policies and procedures, and will not be entitled to benefits provided therein (such as leave entitlements and medical insurance coverage). Their conditions of service will be governed by their contract and the General Conditions of Contracts for the Services of Consultants and Individual Contractors. Consultants and individual contractors are responsible for determining their tax liabilities and for the payment of any taxes and/or duties, in accordance with local or other applicable laws.

The selected candidate is solely responsible to ensure that the visa (applicable) and health insurance required to perform the duties of the contract are valid for the entire period of the contract. Selected candidates are subject to confirmation of fully-vaccinated status against SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) with a World Health Organization (WHO)-endorsed vaccine, which must be met prior to taking up the assignment. It does not apply to consultants who will work remotely and are not expected to work on or visit UNICEF premises, programme delivery locations or directly interact with communities UNICEF works with, nor to travel to perform functions for UNICEF for the duration of their consultancy contracts.

Advertised: 30 May 2024 Eastern Daylight Time
Deadline: 13 Jun 2024 Eastern Daylight Time